The NEW Daily Decision for 10.15.18 - Understanding The Algos and Systematic Sellers


The State of the Markets:

Before we dive in to any sort of subjective analysis about the current state of the markets or what may or may not come next, I think it is important to note that our Indicator Boards did a pretty darn good job of waving yellow flags well before the current correction began.

While I learned a long time ago that is a VERY bad idea to brag in this business, I would like to point out that the boards had been warning us for weeks that all was not right with the indicator world and/or that risk factors were elevated. For example, take a peek at the August 20 report titled, All Is Not Right With The World. As such, anyone paying attention to our weekly review of the state of the indicators should not have been surprised by some corrective action.

On a personal note, having some sort of a "heads up" that the indicators were not in their happy places in advance of the negative action gave us time to prepare and make some adjustments. For example, in portfolios that focus on market leadership, we have positions allocated to both the leading factors and the leading major market indices. For much of the year, selecting these positions had been easy-peasy. The leading factor had clearly been momentum and the leading major index had been the NASDAQ 100.

However, as the indicators faltered, and technical divergences developed, there was a distinct shift in our leadership work. So, at the beginning of the month, factor leadership shifted from momentum to minimum volatility and the NDX was replaced by the Dow. Whether or not this type of leadership holds beyond the next week or so is anybody's guess. But I wanted to provide an ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.12.18 - What Is Real And What Is Artificial?


The State of the Markets:

What a difference a few days can make in this business, right? Seven days ago, the Dow closed at a fresh all-time high. The market narrative at the time was well known. The economy was ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.11.18 - Assuming The Worst


The State of the Markets:

Not surprisingly, I spent much of yesterday afternoon on the telephone speaking with advisors about what the heck was happening in the stock market. With the Dow just five days removed from an all-time high ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.8.18 - Time To Hit Reset?


The State of the Markets:

As long-time readers are aware, the main objective of my oftentimes meandering market missive is to identify the driving forces behind the action in the stock market. For the past 20+ years, my thinking has ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.3.18 - TRADE ALERT EXPECTED TODAY

The NEW Daily Decision Portfolio

NOTE: TRADE ALERTS LIKELY TODAY

Our Risk Managed Growth System is telling us to reduce exposure today. As such, we will be cutting our positions in SSO and QLD in half.

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The latest upgrade to ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.1.18 - Bulls Remain In Charge, But...


The State of the Markets:

It was a busy weekend filled with family, travel, and the passing of a pet, so I'm going to skip the subjective analysis of the stock market and let the indicators do most of ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.24.18 - Will Valuations Spoil The Bull's Party?


The State of the Markets:

In spite of the escalating trade "skirmish" and a long list of purported negatives, stocks continued to trudge higher last week with the DJIA finishing at a new all-time high on Friday. The S&P 500 ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.17.18 - The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly


The State of the Markets:

My quote system confirms that stocks finished higher on the week and that the S&P 500 gained ground all five days last week. And with the venerable index closing Friday at the second highest level ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.10.18 - What If Something Bad Actually Happens?


The State of the Markets:

In case you have somehow missed it, the ten-year anniversary of Lehman's collapse is upon us. The fall of Lehman Brothers, and perhaps more importantly, the fact that Wall Street didn't bail out ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.4.18 - The Pause That Refreshes?


The State of the Markets:

Now that the S&P 500 has managed to move to new all-time highs, the obvious question becomes, where do we go from here?

Our furry friends in the bear camp contend that the prolonged period ...

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The NEW Daily Decision - A Step In The Right Direction


The State of the Markets:

It always seems to happen this way. Last week the title of my lone missive was, "All is not right with the world." The key point I wanted to make was that while the U ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 8.13.18 - Fresh Worries, But No Crisis


The State of the Markets:

A new worry about contagion, rising inflation, political risks, geopolitical issues, concerns about peak growth (especially in semiconductor-land) and, of course, the trade war all combined to create a weak ending to what had been ...

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