The Daily Decision for 1.18.18 - The New Market Narrative: Dilly Dilly!


The State of the Markets:

Bearish reversal? What bearish reversal? It turns out that Wednesday's market narrative made a mockery of Tuesday's hand wringing relating to a potential government shut down and the end of QE as we know it. So, cue the reversal of the reversal, or the dip buying, or whatever you'd like to call it. The bottom line is that one day after a 380 point reversal off the top, the blue-chip indices bulled their way to fresh all-time highs. Dilly Dilly!

If you find yourself shaking your head at this week's action or wondering how stocks, bond yields, and the VIX can all go up at the same time one day after what was purported to be an "important reversal," you are not alone.

P.S. Anyone who claims to have "called" today's move should be avoided like the plague. But I digress.

The key to my oftentimes meandering morning market missive is to identify the driving forces behind the market's movement. To be clear, we are NOT trying to pass judgement on the action, rather to try and understand why Ms. Market is doing what she is doing.

So, from my seat, Wednesday's joyride to the upside was triggered by a resumption of the "growth narrative" and was sponsored by our good friends at Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).

To clarify, the current market narrative is a two-parter. First, it is becoming apparent that the trend in Corporate America is to use the tax benefits created by the new tax bill to spend money. On bonuses. On plants. On hiring.

And the second part is that the stock market has yet to "price in" the full effect of what is happening out there.

Exhibit A in this argument was Apple ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.17.18 - Did Something Just Crawl Out Of The Woodwork?


The State of the Markets:

And we're back... After months of little to no volatility, the bears got back into the game yesterday, putting on a pretty decent show on the first day of the week's trade.

Stocks ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.16.18 - Bulls May Need To Slow Their Roll


The State of the Markets:

The bulls encountered a bit of a challenge early last week, but by Friday appeared to be none the worse for wear as the rip-snorting bull run of 2018 continued unabated.

However, at least on ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.11.18 - Bond Panic May Be Fake News


The State of the Markets:

After moving to within a whisker of the 2.6% level (2.595% to be exact) yesterday, the yield on the U.S. Government's 10-Year Treasury pulled back in the afternoon and closed at ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.10.18 - Are Bonds Crossing the Line in the Sand?


The State of the Markets:

When stocks enter what I like to call "melt up" mode, everything is right with the world. The economic data is strong. Earnings are fantastic. Inflation is low. Consumers are happy and shopping. Employers are ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.8.18 - Bulls On The Run


2018 YTD Performance Update:
DD TRADING Model: +3.2%
DD LEADERS MOdel: +2.8%
S&P 500: +2.6%


The State of the Market:

With the S&P 500 up 2.6% so far in 2018, it appears that, barring an unforeseen ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.3.18


2017 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +23.91%
(vs. S&P 500 19.40%)


Today's Take...

While much of Wall Street is still enjoying the holiday season, there is a fair amount of action for market participants to digest today ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.2.18


2017 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +23.91%
(vs. S&P 500 19.40%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors.

However, given the rotation occurring in market ...

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Can The Bears Find Their Long-Lost Mojo?

The "State of the Markets"

As we embark on a fresh new calendar year (aka the scorecard in our business), the question of the day is – in my mind, in my mind, anyway – will the bears will be able to ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.28.17 - Up 24.3% YTD


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.3%
(vs. S&P 500 19.8%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors.

However, given the rotation occurring in market ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.27.17 - Trades Coming Soon in Leaders Model


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.1%
(vs. S&P 500 19.7%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors. Heads up - given the rotation occurring in ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.22.17 - Leaders Up +24.5% YTD


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.5%
(vs. S&P 500 19.9%)


The Daily Decision Models:

The Daily Decision is designed to be a simple, easy-to-follow e-letter service showcasing 3 different model portfolios. The LEADERS model is the flagship ...

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