The NEW Daily Decision for 10.22.18 - Sifting Through The Conflicting Evidence


The State of the Markets:

From my seat, the most important question on this fine Monday morning is if stocks are currently in the "retest" stage of a waterfall decline, which means that we are likely closer to the end of the correction than the beginning - or - if we are still in stage one, aka the initial decline. (To review, I detailed the various stages that tend to occur during waterfall decline last week in a missive titled, Checking The Playbook.)

In case it isn't obvious, there is really no way of knowing what's next in Ms. Market's game and I learned a LONG time ago that it is a fool's errand to try and predict what the market will do in the near-term. However, given that we know what type of environment we are currently faced with (a corrective phase), there are some clues that we can look at including the current price action and the state of the indicators.

From a short-term price perspective, the stock market starts the week in a very precarious position. Cutting to the chase, the S&P 500 finished the week with two consecutive closes right at its 200-day moving average. This, in and of itself is important because this seemingly important line of demarcation usually brings out the fast money masters of the universe and their trading computers. In other words, typically when the market approaches an important technical level, traders get busy. But this time, the venerable large cap index managed to close right on the line two days in a row. Interesting.

While I haven't been a fan of using a 200-day moving average as a "signal" since the 1980's, the popular press and a great many analysts see the 200-day as a line in the sand between ...

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The NEW Daily Decision - Checking The Playbook


The State of the Markets:

My guess is that after Wednesday's action, everyone is feeling a little better about the state of the stock market. While the bears and their algos mounted another series of attacks yesterday, good prevailed over ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.15.18 - Understanding The Algos and Systematic Sellers


The State of the Markets:

Before we dive in to any sort of subjective analysis about the current state of the markets or what may or may not come next, I think it is important to note that our Indicator ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.12.18 - What Is Real And What Is Artificial?


The State of the Markets:

What a difference a few days can make in this business, right? Seven days ago, the Dow closed at a fresh all-time high. The market narrative at the time was well known. The economy was ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.11.18 - Assuming The Worst


The State of the Markets:

Not surprisingly, I spent much of yesterday afternoon on the telephone speaking with advisors about what the heck was happening in the stock market. With the Dow just five days removed from an all-time high, ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.8.18 - Time To Hit Reset?


The State of the Markets:

As long-time readers are aware, the main objective of my oftentimes meandering market missive is to identify the driving forces behind the action in the stock market. For the past 20+ years, my thinking has ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.3.18 - TRADE ALERT EXPECTED TODAY

The NEW Daily Decision Portfolio

NOTE: TRADE ALERTS LIKELY TODAY

Our Risk Managed Growth System is telling us to reduce exposure today. As such, we will be cutting our positions in SSO and QLD in half.

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The latest upgrade ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.1.18 - Bulls Remain In Charge, But...


The State of the Markets:

It was a busy weekend filled with family, travel, and the passing of a pet, so I'm going to skip the subjective analysis of the stock market and let the indicators do most of the ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.24.18 - Will Valuations Spoil The Bull's Party?


The State of the Markets:

In spite of the escalating trade "skirmish" and a long list of purported negatives, stocks continued to trudge higher last week with the DJIA finishing at a new all-time high on Friday. The S&P 500 ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.17.18 - The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly


The State of the Markets:

My quote system confirms that stocks finished higher on the week and that the S&P 500 gained ground all five days last week. And with the venerable index closing Friday at the second highest level ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.10.18 - What If Something Bad Actually Happens?


The State of the Markets:

In case you have somehow missed it, the ten-year anniversary of Lehman's collapse is upon us. The fall of Lehman Brothers, and perhaps more importantly, the fact that Wall Street didn't bail out the firm, ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.4.18 - The Pause That Refreshes?


The State of the Markets:

Now that the S&P 500 has managed to move to new all-time highs, the obvious question becomes, where do we go from here?

Our furry friends in the bear camp contend that the prolonged period ...

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