The Daily Decision for 1.22.18 - No Time To Be a Hero


The State of the Markets:

To review, my first report each week is intended to take a big-picture, macro view of the overall market environment. The idea is to start the week with what we hope will be a solid understanding of what "is" happening in the market (as opposed to what you think "should" be taking place).

The primary reason I continue to do this exercise week after week, month after month, year after year is simple. If I can continuously identify what is actually going on in Ms. Market's game (and I can keep my ego checked at the door), then I shouldn't be surprised when the market environment changes. Remember, the business of investing isn't about "being right." No, it's about "getting it mostly right, most of the time."

The key here is that nobody should give a hoot about what I "think" is going to happen next. Heck, I shouldn't even care about trying to determine what stocks or bonds will do next. In my view, the game is about making sure my portfolios are positioned appropriately for the current environment.

So, the natural question as we enter the fourth trading week of the year is, how do we best define the current macro environment?

In attempting to answer this question, it is very easy to fall into the trap of making predictions. And this is the reason that I rely on the indicator boards displayed in this report each week. So, let's run through them and see what we come up with from an overall "message" standpoint.

Starting with the Primary Cycle board, which is designed to identify the dominant trend (i.e. bull vs. bear), my favorite big-picture models are in pretty good shape. And since there is no red on the board, I think ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.18.18 - The New Market Narrative: Dilly Dilly!


The State of the Markets:

Bearish reversal? What bearish reversal? It turns out that Wednesday's market narrative made a mockery of Tuesday's hand wringing relating to a potential government shut down and the end of QE as we know it. ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.17.18 - Did Something Just Crawl Out Of The Woodwork?


The State of the Markets:

And we're back... After months of little to no volatility, the bears got back into the game yesterday, putting on a pretty decent show on the first day of the week's trade.

Stocks started the ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.16.18 - Bulls May Need To Slow Their Roll


The State of the Markets:

The bulls encountered a bit of a challenge early last week, but by Friday appeared to be none the worse for wear as the rip-snorting bull run of 2018 continued unabated.

However, at least on ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.11.18 - Bond Panic May Be Fake News


The State of the Markets:

After moving to within a whisker of the 2.6% level (2.595% to be exact) yesterday, the yield on the U.S. Government's 10-Year Treasury pulled back in the afternoon and closed at 2.55%. The key is ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.10.18 - Are Bonds Crossing the Line in the Sand?


The State of the Markets:

When stocks enter what I like to call "melt up" mode, everything is right with the world. The economic data is strong. Earnings are fantastic. Inflation is low. Consumers are happy and shopping. Employers are ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.8.18 - Bulls On The Run


2018 YTD Performance Update:
DD TRADING Model: +3.2%
DD LEADERS MOdel: +2.8%
S&P 500: +2.6%


The State of the Market:

With the S&P 500 up 2.6% so far in 2018, it appears that, barring an unforeseen disaster today, the market ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.3.18


2017 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +23.91%
(vs. S&P 500 19.40%)


Today's Take...

While much of Wall Street is still enjoying the holiday season, there is a fair amount of action for market participants to digest today. First, I'd be ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.2.18


2017 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +23.91%
(vs. S&P 500 19.40%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors.

However, given the rotation occurring in market leadership, we are ...

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Can The Bears Find Their Long-Lost Mojo?

The "State of the Markets"

As we embark on a fresh new calendar year (aka the scorecard in our business), the question of the day is – in my mind, in my mind, anyway – will the bears will be ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.28.17 - Up 24.3% YTD


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.3%
(vs. S&P 500 19.8%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors.

However, given the rotation occurring in market leadership, we are ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.27.17 - Trades Coming Soon in Leaders Model


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.1%
(vs. S&P 500 19.7%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors. Heads up - given the rotation occurring in market leadership, ...

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