The State of the Markets:
It always seems to happen this way. Last week the title of my lone missive was, "All is not right with the world." The key point I wanted to make was that while the U.S. stock market looked to be in pretty good shape, the world markets were not. And since the best bull market runs tend to be global in scope, I thought it made sense to alert readers to what I perceived to be an important risk factor.
So, what did Ms. Market do with my global macro warning? Step lively to new all-time highs, of course - LOL!
Such is the game we play and one of the primary reasons I don't believe in trying to make "calls" on what is about to happen next in Ms. Market's game. I've been in the business of investing since mid-1980 and I can say with absolute certainty that no one has been able to consistently "call" the next move in the market for any length of time.
Sure, I could hammer away at the keyboard this morning and 'esplain' that these types of divergences tend to occur late in the cycle and that we should keep our eyes peeled for trouble ahead. I could point to any number of scary numbers to make myself feel better about my "warning." I could even go so far as to say that I will be "right" in the end.
But here is a lesson I learned from Ned Davis a LONG time ago. Unless you make your living selling advertisements (which requires consistent "eyeballs" on your musings and everybody in the publishing business knows that fear sells), the business of investing isn't about "being right." No, it's about "getting it right" and "making hay while ...