The Daily Decision for 6.11.18 - Buckle Up, This Will Be Interesting


The State of the Markets:

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. I hope you are buckled in as we've got a big week for the markets coming. So, before we review the state of the market models, let's take a look at what might shape the markets this week.

The news flow actually started to flow before the week began here in the U.S. We started with the reaction to the G-7 meeting, where there was some drama over U.S. tariffs. Next, Italy's new Finance Minister, Giovanni Tira, said nice things about the euro and that his government would block any conditions that would "push toward an exit." This pushed Italian stocks up 2% and helped European equities perk up.

Next up is the historic summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Both have arrived in Singapore and senior officials are busy trying to iron out differences before the actual summit takes place. At stake here is security environment in Asia but there continues to be concerns about what the term "denuclearization" means to both sides.

Then the fun with the Central Bankers begins. First up is the U.S. Federal Reserve. Jay Powell's gang begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday. Just about everyone on the planet expects a 0.25% rate hike on Wednesday and another at the September meeting. However, the real question is about what happens after September. As such, market players will be listening for clues about the possibility of a fourth rate increase in 2018 and what Powell & Co. have planned for next year.

On Thursday, it's Super Mario's turn in the spotlight. No one expects the ECB to make any changes to its monthly QE program, where the bank currently purchases 30 billion euros of ...

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The Daily Decision for 6.6.18 - Upgrades to CORE and TRADING Models Coming Soon!


Today's Model Review:

COMING SOON: UPGRADES TO CORE AND TRADING MODELS
We are excited to announce that the latest upgrade to our models will be implemented within the next month. The CORE model will take a more growth-oriented stance and ...

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The Daily Decision for 6.5.18 - A New Era For Stock Market Valuations?


The State of the Markets:

I've been saying for some time now that I believe the current corrective/consolidation phase will ultimately be resolved to the upside. Or put another way, I don't think we're seeing the beginning of the next ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.31.18 - The Big Reason Not To Be Negative Here


The State of the Markets:

In my humble opinion, one of the keys to success in the investing business is the ability to remain both objective and flexible. Early in my career, I would occasionally "fall in love" with my ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.30.18 - Is "Italeave" The Next Problem?


The State of the Markets:

Well, that was interesting. I don't know about you, but I had a pretty severe case of déjà vu yesterday as the global markets freaked out over the potential for an "Italeave." We've definitely seen ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.29.18 - Time To Dust Off The Euro-Crisis Playbook?


The State of the Markets:

Good morning and welcome back. One of the great things about taking some time away from the keyboard and your daily routine is it gives you time to reflect on the big picture stuff as ...

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The Daily Decision - The Question: How Much is Enough?


The State of the Markets:

In pondering the macro picture over the weekend, it occurred to me that the current environment can be summed up with one simple question: How much is enough? As in, how much do stock prices ...

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The Daily Decision for 2.13.18 - What's Next? History Suggests...


The State of the Markets:

One of my favorite jokes about Wall Street goes something like this: The first time something happens on Wall Street, it's called it a trend. If it happens twice in a row, it's a tradition. ...

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The Daily Decision for 2.12.18 - The Biggest Change Seen Last Week Was...


The State of the Markets:

I like to start each week by reviewing (a) my key market indicators and (b) the macro picture of the current market environment. As such, my Monday morning market missive is intended to cover both. ...

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The Daily Decision for 2.9.18 - Is This Really About Rates?


The State of the Markets:

I usually don't write on Friday mornings. However, with the Dow experiencing its second quadruple-digit dance to the downside of the week yesterday, I figured it was probably time to make an exception.

The goal ...

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The Daily Decision for 2.6.18 - What is Real and What is Artificial?


The State of the Markets:

During times of market stress, one of the biggest challenges is trying to determine what is real and what is artificial.

When markets spike - in either direction - there is usually some sort of ...

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The Daily Decision - FOMO Has Taken Over - For Good Reason?


The State of the Markets:

As we enter the final week of what is turning out to be the best January since 1989, the macro drivers of the market remain the same. Cutting to the chase, investors continue to look ...

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